Commentaries
Comments and observations by Paul Strassmann
Friday, April 01, 2005
The Challenge of Life-Time Education for an Aging Workforce
In a recent conversation with the President of a major university he inquired about a plausible scenario describing university education in the future.
To define the problem I suggest the following parameters (you may fill in your own estimates):
1. Life expectancy of a graduating college student: 90 years+ (2005 – 2075);
2. Expected work life starting at the age 20 = 60 years
3. Half-life of a career due to obsolescence = 7 years (and decreasing)
4. Number of educational “major model upgrades” over a career = 8
5. Personal time/educational for a major upgrade = 1 person-year (1500 hrs)
6. % of time in life-time education = 8/60 * 1 person-year = 13 %
7. Life-time compensation ( in 2005 $s) = $65,000 * 60 = $3.9 million
8. Cost of personal time for life-time education = $3.9 million x 0.13 = $507,0000
9. Tuition for life-time education (State U, in 2005 $s) = $ 6,000 x 8 = $48,000
These estimates are roughly indicative of the economic ratios that reflect the total costs of lifetime education. However, the institutional setup of the university focuses on the efficiencies in delivering its services as reflected in the costs of the tuition. Tuition accounts for only 9.5% of the total costs by its “customers” (e.g. students).
For a university to address the totality of a student’s life cycle costs of education the university must also deal with the full costs of lifetime educational support. Without a shift from the scheduled classrooms (that consume man-hours of earning capacity) to a person’s flexible and totally discretionary time the costs would be excessive.
It is clear to me (having done on-line teaching) that just imitating on-line what professors do in classrooms is not a viable solution. The existing educational experiences (e.g. lessons delivered either in classrooms or in on-line imitations) can be characterized as industrial age batch processing that tends to seek economies of scale through production of standard educational products.
The challenge of providing educational “life support” for careers calls for a totally different approach – e.g. individualized customization where the university provides services that uniquely fit the rapidly changing needs of a particular individual. How to deliver such services calls for applying the evolving discipline of “knowledge management” – a subject that warrants a separate commentary.
To define the problem I suggest the following parameters (you may fill in your own estimates):
1. Life expectancy of a graduating college student: 90 years+ (2005 – 2075);
2. Expected work life starting at the age 20 = 60 years
3. Half-life of a career due to obsolescence = 7 years (and decreasing)
4. Number of educational “major model upgrades” over a career = 8
5. Personal time/educational for a major upgrade = 1 person-year (1500 hrs)
6. % of time in life-time education = 8/60 * 1 person-year = 13 %
7. Life-time compensation ( in 2005 $s) = $65,000 * 60 = $3.9 million
8. Cost of personal time for life-time education = $3.9 million x 0.13 = $507,0000
9. Tuition for life-time education (State U, in 2005 $s) = $ 6,000 x 8 = $48,000
These estimates are roughly indicative of the economic ratios that reflect the total costs of lifetime education. However, the institutional setup of the university focuses on the efficiencies in delivering its services as reflected in the costs of the tuition. Tuition accounts for only 9.5% of the total costs by its “customers” (e.g. students).
For a university to address the totality of a student’s life cycle costs of education the university must also deal with the full costs of lifetime educational support. Without a shift from the scheduled classrooms (that consume man-hours of earning capacity) to a person’s flexible and totally discretionary time the costs would be excessive.
It is clear to me (having done on-line teaching) that just imitating on-line what professors do in classrooms is not a viable solution. The existing educational experiences (e.g. lessons delivered either in classrooms or in on-line imitations) can be characterized as industrial age batch processing that tends to seek economies of scale through production of standard educational products.
The challenge of providing educational “life support” for careers calls for a totally different approach – e.g. individualized customization where the university provides services that uniquely fit the rapidly changing needs of a particular individual. How to deliver such services calls for applying the evolving discipline of “knowledge management” – a subject that warrants a separate commentary.