Software: So Bad, It Can Only Get Better

by Paul A. Strassmann

Computerworld

December 9, 1996

Software can easily rate among the most poorly constructed, unreliable and least maintainable technological artifacts ever invented by man -- with perhaps the exception of Icarus' wings.

Nobody would tolerate telephones that crash every other day. Nobody would buy a house if taxes and upkeep were seven times the purchase price. Nobody would acquire a microwave oven if it meant rewiring the entire house every time some other new appliance was plugged in. Absolutely nobody would spend a year's rent to replace all doors because somebody attached the hinges with only two screws instead of the required four.

Yet these are the analogies executives think of when systems developers explain why it's hard to implement an important new technology. No wonder executives become exasperated. No wonder they turn to vendors who can make the software mess disappear from sight, whatever the cost and whether or not they fix what was wrong to begin with.

Still, the suffering goes on. There is always a champion who demands that IS develop a new computer application for coping with operating problems. What champions and their followers don't understand is that applications become increasingly difficult to service over time as an unceasing stream of upgrades and what is loosely called ``maintenance'' replaces what was previously constructed at great expense.

Software does not physically wear out. It is supposed to improve with use as errors are discovered, then corrected. Yet, software tends to degenerate much faster than any computer equipment - or any other consumer appliance or consumer good - because of its inherently poor characteristics.

Software Characteristics

Software becomes obsolete because programmers and vendors can't keep up with rapid change coming from many directions.

Here are some of the sources of disturbance:

Increasing Incompatibility

There is the erosion in compatibility in the microprocessor architecture upon which all operating systems are constructed. The capacity to pack millions and soon billions of semiconductor elements on a silicon chip corrodes the foundation on which everything else is constructed. As hardware moves from an eight-bit processor to a 64-bit processor, all of the software must be adapted accordingly. As communication speeds quicken, the concept of what must be processed centrally and what can be handled locally undergoes radical change. The layers upon layers on which the useful applications rest are not bedrock, but continually shifting quicksand. No wonder what rests on top is prone to sudden collapse.

Creeping Featurism

The software market, with its rapidly changing cast of suppliers, is a rat race fueled by generous advertising allowances, conventions, magazines and clever vendor tactics that support only the latest version of a software package. Under such conditions programmers have little incentive to create something of more than immediate use.

Unqualified Programmers

Even though the market will deliver, in due course, operating system platforms that are more stable than what's out there at the time, it's unlikely that most programmers will have the incentives to program reliable applications unless management insists on and verifies them. Most of today's programming of business applications is not done by programming professionals. It is performed by amateurs whose competency has never been formally tested. Plumbers, beauticians and truck drivers are subjected to tougher certification standards than those who deliver most business applications. It is office workers who write applications for data management, financial analysis and report-retrieval. These amateur programmers are self-taught refugees from careers like accounting, chemistry or jazz. They work on unreasonably short deadlines. They have at their disposal mediocre testing and integration tools. They report to ill-informed corporate bureaucrats who believe the advertising claims that writing significant applications is as easy as using a spreadsheet.

Short term-thinking

The year 2000 bug is only one example of the short-sightedness of what some claim to be a professional occupation. A typical programmer makes hundreds of such myopic decisions. They just follow management's wishes for speedy completion and minimal expense. The only reason why the year 2000 bug has attracted so much attention is because it is ubiquitous and has a definite deadline when its effects will become universally observable. There are millions of other bugs just as negligent but they pop up randomly, one location at a time, most likely costing more than the $300 billion for the threatened collapse in 37 months.

Tolerance of pain

IS managers are willing to accept frequent systems crashes from software incompatibilities as a natural phenomenon. It's all a matter of conditioning. Businesspeople expect to get a dial tone from their phone 99.99% of the time. Most users of personal computers consider themselves lucky if their desired applications stay up for a week without some mishap. Conditioning to pain can make people tolerant to pain, even if they don't like it.

Prospects for recognizing total costs

Though erosion in compatibility, creeping featurism, unqualified programmers and vendor incentives result in conditions that are wasteful and onerous, all of that must be corrected in due course. Competent management will accept damage to its business only if the effects are either insignificant, or if a remedy is unavailable. I'm confident that the current state of the software business will not be allowed to continue. The costs are not insignificant and in many cases represent a considerably greater percentage of corporate profits than before.

With regard to the remedies, I expect that sooner or later some vendor who seeks to gain an inordinate competitive advantage will start selling computer technologies that recognize the total costs of the customer's ownership instead of just the purchase price of what they sell.

Icarus' wings were said to be held together only with wax that ultimately melted. Yet, progress overcame even this improbable feat. The history of technology and competition proves us that quality, reliability and ease of use will always prevail.

In software's case, that's likely to happen soon. There are just too many businesses than can't keep up with wasting money on shoddy programming solutions.


Copyright 1996 by IDG Communications, Inc., 500 Old Connecticut Path, Framingham, MA 01701.
Reprinted by permission of Computerworld

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