Interview with Paul Strassmann
By Tom Iggulden
MIS Australia Magazine, June 1999
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Case study first published in MIS Aust Jul 1999
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In the firing line |
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It's not often you meet figures in the IT business who are truly inspirational.
Oh yes, there are gurus aplenty, and certainly a wide and interesting range of
opinions. IT managers, in fact, are almost always strategic thinkers with an
uncanny knack of seeing around corners, figuratively speaking.
Paul Strassmann, as well as having these qualities, is inspirational. A leading
exponent of the Economic Value-Added (EVA) model of information productivity,
Strassmann is a big-picture thinker. His passion for history puts the
information age in context, and his opinions on the responsibility of the IT
manager are backed up with the weight of history.
Strassmann was the keynote speaker at the recent MIS MindShare Annual Retreat,
where he presented his research into the productivity of information in US
corporations. His background combines experience in information management with
strong economic skills.
Strassmann began his career in IT management with Xerox Corporation in 1969,
and was involved in the seminal Palo Alto Research Centre (PARC). He worked
with Xerox in various information management capacities. It was during this
time he began his life's work on information productivity and economics.
His focus during this time was on return on management (ROM), developing
influential indicators on information productivity and knowledge capital.
Strassmann began publishing books on the subject in the early 1980s, beginning
with Risk and Technological Innovation, before he left to begin consulting.
During this time he chaired a White House committee on productivity. His work
soon attracted the attention of some of America's biggest corporations,
including General Electric, General Motors, Shell Oil, AT&T and IBM, among
others, for whom he provided consultancy services.
Strassmann was also the first director of information at the US Department of
Defence, where he was in charge of a US$35 billion cost reduction program. He
left this post in 1993 and since then has been advising governments and
corporations across the globe, including the Australian Defence Forces.
Much of your work touches on the contribution that IT can make in terms of
the general economy and the wealth of a nation. How did you come to the view
that IT could contribute to society in such a way?
Well, much of this is to do with the philosophy of how societies advance and
dealing with the fundamental issue of historical forces. Mankind has a long
history of probing to advance itself and to create liberty for people, and the
ability to live in freedom.
My hobby is really the history of the world. In fact, I did the museum for
Xerox's world headquarters on the history of communications covering 10,000
years. What I've come to recognise is that the evolution of a broad historical
trend has always been based on mankind being able to capitalise on skills.
Whether that means chipping a stone, so that it then becomes a piece of
capital, or whether it comes from an irrigation system, a steam engine and so
forth, the progression of mankind has always been associated with mankind's
tools. In fact according to some philosophical views, man is a tool-making
animal. And you always see that there is a limitation of growth.
But you can only extract so much productivity out of raw materials and machine
tools. And after a while you end up having as many refrigerators as possible. I
became fascinated about 30 years ago with the whole notion of what is the next
wave of mankind. In the last 50 years most of the developed countries have
pretty much caught up with America in terms of income per capita. Everyone
seems to stagnate at about $40,000 to $50,000 per capita.
I started looking at what limitations mankind has to overcome. And what
basically happened was that as we started really developing a capability of
almost unlimited supply of goods, the discounter that started kicking in was
the overhead, or what I call social coordination costs. Starting in 1976, when
I was able to look at the global Xerox Corporation, and I was able to look at
89 countries, I had total data about what copying equipment they sold, how many
employees they had and so on ... total information.
I started to become very much concerned about the future of Xerox. Because it
became quite obvious that Xerox, in terms of manufacturing these machines that
spewed out more paper, was coming to a limit.
And this is where I started. In the early 1970s some of us started developing
the concepts, which in those days we called the office of the future, but my
writing rejected those terms. We started really looking at information-based
society.
I started looking at the cost of coordination. What came out of this work was
that if we don't solve the problem of coordination cost, then what are the
economies that we get out of materials? They are going to be choked by the
increased complexity and the increased cost of so-called middlemen.
In order to achieve the global distribution and optimisation of materials they
have to start looking at a global society, global connectivity. Middlemen and
warehouses and the like were just not going to work. And so I basically
postulated in my first book that most developed countries can overcome the
limitation of $40,000 to $50,000 in real income per capita and move to what may
be perhaps as much as $250,000 real income per capita, in a fairly rapid way.
[To do that] we have to try and find a way to overcome what is called market
transfer costs.
You're talking about creating wealth in a society?
I'm talking about society, but wealth is created in corporations. Corporations
are the engine of wealth creation. If you want to solve the societal problems,
you have to look at the engines of wealth creation.
In terms of the individual CIO, how does he or she look past the
day-to-day?
Well, are you cutting stones and building a wall, or building a cathedral? What
I am beseeching these people to do - because they are enjoying a privileged
position - is to start realising that if all they're doing is putting together
rock piles, particularly brittle rock piles, then they're just going to invite
doubt.
You mentioned in your keynote the danger of having generalists moving into
the IT role.
Yeah, and the reason is again lessons from history. Competence is very
important. If you want to build a civilisation based on information, then you
must have people who really understand the dynamics and the risks. These MBA
wonders, who sort of get flushed in and out as sort of custodians, are
dangerous.
Let me tell you the story about the demise of the Spanish Empire, which used to
be the most powerful empire in the world because they had all the gold. The
fundamental flaw that the Spanish Empire made was that you could only hold a
position as a general or as a captain of a warship if you came from a noble
family. The Brits just took any pirate who knew how to run a ship. And guess
who won the game?
The Brits?
The Brits. Without the gold, without anything except eking out a living.
So it was an economic victory as well as a social one?
That's right. So these grandees who enter parliament ... they just believe the
latest buzzwords they read in the newspapers. You can't run things that way. I
mean if you want to run a warship, you have to be a competent navigator. And
your crew has to trust you in a storm. So that's my comment on MBAs running big
computer operations.
And so the danger of IT managers becoming negligent in their duties is to the
corporation and to society in general?
And you know, it happens many times in history, and I can give you many
examples of destruction of very prosperous societies, the collapse of the
French Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Portuguese Empire. Ultimately all can be
traced to the leadership of the politically correct.
There are certain things that have to be done professionally. Technology alone
isn't good enough. But if you want to build something and provide true
captains, then you must combine both the skill of navigation, the skill of
command, the skill of knowing whether you have enough rations for the crew.
The other notable thing that I've picked up on during our conversations is that
there is a strong warlike element to your conversations.
You're dealing with commercial warfare. The world as I see it at this juncture
- and this is a very favourable development - has economic competition, which
is a form of warfare. I don't like other warfare - Kosovo is a deplorable
situation. Warfare is the proper way to deal with modeling what's going on. And
much of the reason why people are technology-promiscuous is that it is an arms
race. An arms race is OK, but then you also have to invest in the generalship,
the ability to lead.
Ultimately, when everyone has the same weapons, it's the best troops and the
best generals who win. And in fact having weapons alone will not win you the
war, like we have proven in Vietnam.
The timespan in business today for competitive advantage is becoming much
shorter.
It's becoming shorter, but this is why this phenomenon of Amazon.com is a
dramatic phenomenon. This is about disintermediating coordination costs. This
is the economic label for it.
Yes, I love that word, "disintermediation."
It's an armed attack on the whole establishment. You see it on brokerages and
financial industries, all of these vestiges of entrenched, monopolised or
quasi-monopolised transaction costs are just crumbling.
So in terms of this new economy, and the changing rules of engagement for
business warfare, how does the IT manager of the future become a good general,
and how do his troops become good troops?
Well you become part of the spear, the edge of the spear. The shaft is still
provided by business, but the front edge of the spear and the aim must be
perfect. It must be well-timed, economical, aggressive, reliable and most
provide a protection against risk. If you trust a Spanish warship loaded with
gold to a flunkey son of a Spanish grandee, well he's just going to get picked
apart by the British pirates. You see, Betty Number One [Strassmann refers here
to Queen Elizabeth the First] was basically a venture capitalist.
This is not a role many IT directors would see themselves as, a spearhead I
mean.
It's almost comparable with what happened in England and Scotland in the
mid-19th century where people like James Watt figured out steam engines. Steam
engines had been around since the 1500s, but no one knew how to harness it into
an environment.
For a technology to come through a number of political and economic conditions
must be present to create this chain reaction. We are clearly at a point in
history not equaled since the Rennaissance, and the Western World took off in
the Rennaissance.
The Rennaissance took off and created the merchant class, and [saw] the
breaking of the power of the church and the breaking of the power of the
aristocracy. What I'm saying is that we are now at the threshold of a period -
which may or may not come soon - where the power of the entrenched bureaucratic
monopolies is weakened. Industrialisation has created wealth - the lawyers, the
customs agents and the brokers. The information workers in the US now receive
64 per cent of all wages and salaries.
In the same way that the rise of the merchant class destroyed the power of the
church and the landed classes, who is going to be the loser in this revolution?
In those days power lay with those who had land, which was the primary source
of wealth, and the church sort of legitimised it. But in the same way as land
as a primary asset was broken, we are now seeing the breakdown of financial
capital as a primary asset. The dominant asset around which all the information
warfare will revolve for, say, the next 100 years will be knowledge assets,
prime assets that give you competitive advantage. In many ways this is a more
precarious revolution because the risks are greater.
There is a strong element of responsibility on the IT manager here.
I take the theological view that people are responsible. With freedom comes
responsibility. In my view, there are only two commandments, one is man shall
be free, the other is that man shall be accountable. And so privilege is really
a form of freedom, but with that goes accountability, because if you don't have
that the freedom will be taken away.
I think there is a frustration out there with IT managers because people don't
really understand what they do, and the contribution they make. I think it's
good for IT managers to place what they do in some kind of context, that there
is a great significance in what they do.
But few people get into IT for any altruistic reasons.
When you look at the history of ideas there are lots of reasons why people
became Christians, and not necessarily financial reasons. As a human being life
is brutal and short, you come and go. And so you have to provide some kind of
hope beyond your own existence, otherwise you are just like a slug.
So the legitimacy of the privileged class, the intelligentsia and
well-compensated people comes back to my second commandment [man must be
accountable]. You must understand that until recently mankind really struggled
for survival and financial well-being unless you were born into the right
family. And so now that you have the position of privilege, for heaven's sake,
don't give it away.
You must also be careful to make a distinction between technology and
information and knowledge. What is at stake here is not the plumbing. This is
where the thing gets lost. You call these people CIOs - it's nonsense, they're
not CIOs. They are computer junkies. They are stone cutters. Now you will
always need stone cutters, but the possibilities to take whole nations up the
next slope, is up to a different class of people.
I actually really believe it may well come out of the Pacific region.
The Chinese and Japanese cultures are going through a tremendous shock. In
fact, because of the enormous human capital, they may turn out to be better off
having gone through those tribulations. It takes 40 years in the wilderness
sometimes to make a nation.
Once again, to bring this back to the day-today level of the IT manger, what
does he need to do?
He has to become very good. He needs to survive. He really has to become the
person that deals with information as a commodity, rather than as a privilege
or a concession. Ultimately, information needs become a commodity. It has to be
democratised, it has to be in a marketplace.
Every human being within 50 years is going to own hundreds of microprocessors.
Chips in everything. They will have the ability to steer the process in the
same way as the people who started managing steam engines and then electrical
motors.
In my house today I may have hundreds of electrical motors. Actually, last time
I counted it was 60. They are in places you wouldn't even expect. People never
give enough thought to the amount of electrical motors they have in their
houses. The beauty of the chips is that they are actually capable of populating
everything, including your milk carton and the contents of your refrigerator.
But if you would have told my grandfather that his grandson would own 100
electrical motors, he wouldn't have believed it. Yet the engineering of that
transition - making it possible for the enterprise to convert all of this into
economic value - is really the task of the IT manager [when chips are
pervasive].
It is the ability of the IT manager who isn't just the technology pusher, the
architects of information, not the plumbers, is the role of the IT executive in
the 21st century. The architect designs, looks at the economics. They need to
hire in contractors, the plumbers, the excavators and so on. But you build a
cathedral.
This whole notion that the IT executive becomes an architect that can match the
needs of society, the customer, can deal with competition, and really show the
corporation how it can integrate information and knowledge into its economic
engine, is really the task. And if they don't lift themselves, they will just
remain the plumbers, the service workers.
This interview was recorded at the MIS MindShare Annual Retreat, May
1999.
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The power of IT The progress of mankind has always been associated with mankind's tools These MBA wonders, who sort of get flushed in and out as custodians, are dangerous The timespan in business today for competitive advantage is becoming much shorter |